Vaccine roll-out and excess deaths: causation or correlation? Australians deserve to know
Vaccine roll-out and excess deaths: causation or correlation? Australians deserve to know
Mortality in 2021 was in line with 2020 in all states, before increasing after the vaccine roll- out commenced.
Australia initiated its COVID-19 vaccine roll-out in March 2021, with increasing progress in April. The number of deaths during January, February, and March 2021 remained similar to the previous year (2020), but experienced a significant rise from May to October.
This pattern of increased deaths compared to 2020 and the subsequent return to 2020 levels is observed across all states, irrespective of the prevalence of COVID-19 and lockdown measures.
States that implement a more rapid vaccine roll-out experience an earlier peak in excess deaths compared to 2020 and a faster recovery to 2020 levels, in contrast to states with slower roll-outs.
When examining the ABS data about the timing of vaccine-related deaths and their association with chronic illnesses, it is important to distinguish between causation and correlation.
The provided information suggests a correlation between the vaccine roll-out and certain trends in death rates, particularly in relation to immediate deaths and deaths resulting from chronic conditions.
It is important to note that this correlation does not necessarily establish causation. Other factors, such as preexisting health conditions, unrelated circumstances including deaths stemming from complications arising due to lockdown measures could contribute to the observed deaths.
As the vaccine roll-out progresses to younger individuals, the prominence of this effect diminishes. While this correlation between the vaccine roll-out and the observed trends in death rates is noteworthy, it does not confirm a causal relationship.
Source: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/health/causes-death/provisional-mortality-statistics (Australian and state death data), https://www.covid19data.com.au/vaccines (vaccine data), https://www.covid19data.com.au/deaths (COVID-19 death data).
Nationally, monthly deaths in 2021 were in line with 2020 until the vaccine roll-out started to gain momentum. Then, from May to Oct, there were an average of 988 more deaths each month in 2021 than 2020.
